Bangladesh’s export performance is clearly slowing in 2025. Exports were $35.89 billion in 2023 and rose to $38.48 billion in 2024, a strong 7.23% year‑on‑year increase. But from January to November 2025, exports reached only $35.59 billion, just 2.53% higher than the same period in 2024, whereas exports in January–November 2024 had grown by 6.23% over the same months in 2023. This shows that 2025 is trailing last year’s growth pace in both full‑year and 11‑month comparisons. Even if December 2025 performs better than recent months, overall export growth is unlikely to match 2024, and any improvement will probably be modest.
Several negative shocks have shaped the 2025 export trend. Tariff threats and order freezes from key markets, especially the United States, have created extra pressure and uncertainty. Political instability have weakened business confidence and disrupted normal trade flows. Intensified labour unrest, including road blockades and factory closures, has interrupted production and deliveries. The country has, for the first time, seen a complete shutdown of the customs house—an event that is rare globally. In a country where almost all export earnings come from the RMG sector, such a shutdown is extraordinary. A major airport cargo fire destroyed around $1 billion in garment shipments, directly cutting export earnings. At the same time, the removal of export incentives and high domestic inflation have pushed up production costs and eroded competitiveness, making it harder for Bangladeshi exporters to sustain price advantages. Together, these factors have constrained export growth in 2025, keeping it below last year’s trajectory.
Beyond these immediate shocks, structural issues and global competition are intensifying the strain. Fiercer competition in Europe is squeezing Bangladesh’s position in a core market, while weak results in non‑traditional markets highlight the danger of relying heavily on a few big destinations such as the EU and the US. Limited product diversification is also clear, especially compared with competitors like Vietnam, which are moving faster into higher value addition and wider market coverage.
Recent labour law amendments in Bangladesh are intended to improve workers’ rights and align the RMG sector with international standards, but they also increase compliance costs and responsibilities for factory owners, raising the risk of industry disruption if not managed well.
Bangladesh needs to identify and address the root causes of factory closures and strengthen the financial sector’s capacity to provide stable, appropriate support to industry. It must also build effective monitoring systems to ensure that new factories entering the sector align with, and contribute to, broader industrial development goals.
Looking ahead, Bangladesh’s competitiveness will depend on how quickly it can close infrastructure gaps, ease internal bottlenecks, and move up the value chain. Stronger logistics, political and social stability, better factory‑level efficiency, and greater investment in R&D, innovation, and marketing will be essential. Despite current headwinds, Bangladesh retains important structural strengths in scale, capacity, and buyer relationships. With the right strategy and coordinated action, it can regain export growth momentum and strengthen its position in global trade.
Author –
Mohiuddin Rubel
Former Director, BGMEA
Managing Director, Bangladesh Apparel Exchange
Additional Managing Director, Denim Expert Ltd
