Global carpet consumption growth accelerated over the last three years
In 2016, the carpets market amounted to 3.7M sq. m, growing consistently over the last four years. It was preceded by notable decline in 2009, then the volume of consumption remained static through 2013. Over the last three years, it accelerated noticeably, driven by rising consumption in China. In wholesale prices, the market stood at $30.4B in 2016; this figure remained relatively stable with only mild fluctuations over the last seven years.
Global market for carpets to post moderate growth due to the ongoing civil construction growth
In the medium term, it is expected that the growing housing sector in the U.S. will be a key driver for the development of the carpets and rugs market, since residential real estate accounts for the largest part of the world carpet market, and the U.S. is the world’s largest carpet consumer. At the same time, the rapid growth of the construction industry in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in the sector of both residential and non-residential and administrative buildings will also stimulate market growth. In addition, the steady demand from the automotive and civil aviation industry throughout the world will continue to influence both the expansion of the market and the improvement of production technologies.
On the backdrop of the ongoing urbanization in China and other Asian countries, as well as the strong performance of residential construction in the U.S., it is expected that the market should retain its current positive momentum in the immediate term. The performance of the market is forecast to accelerate slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2017 to 2025, which is expected to bring the market volume to 4.3B sq. m. by 2025.
The U.S. consumed approx. one third of the total carpet market volume
According to IndexBox estimates, the countries with the highest consumption were the U.S. (34%), Egypt (8%), Canada (7%), China (7%), the UK (5%), Australia, Turkey, Indonesia and Japan (3%, each), India and Iran (2%, each). The remaining countries comprised near 23% of global consumption.
The highest annual growth rates of carpets consumption from 2007 to 2016 were recorded in China, with +18.7% growth, Iran and Turkey, with +12.0% and +11.1% growth, respectively. Consequently, China strengthened its share in terms of the global consumption from 1% in 2007 to 6% in 2016. Turkey and Iran increased their shares by +2 percentage points, each. By contrast, shares of Canada (-5 percentage points) and Egypt (-3 percentage points) declined over the period under review.
Amongst the leading consuming countries, high levels of per capita consumption were recorded in Canada (7.46 sq.m./year in 2016), Australia (4.93 sq.m./year), which were significantly higher than the world average of 0.5 sq.m./year. The lowest per capita consumption was observed in China (0.18 sq.m./year) and India (0.06 sq.m./year). From 2007 to 2016, in China and Australia there was an annual growth of per capita consumption at +18.5% per year and +5.7% per year, respectively, while Canada (-7.3%) and India (-6.7%) had negative dynamics in terms of per capita consumption.
Carpet production contined to grow robustly
Production of carpets stood at 3.9B sq.m. in 2016, which was 414M sq.m. (or 10%) less than the outset level. Previously, the global carpet output reduced from 4.0B sq.m. in 2007 to the lowest level of 3.1B sq.m. in 2010. It fluctuated over the period 2011-2012, after which there was growth of around 4-5% over the last four years. However, production is still in the recovery phase. In value terms, production was relatively stable over the last year, amounting to $31.7B in 2016. There was an average decline by -1.8% per year from 2007 to 2016.
The U.S. remained the main global producer of carpets
The U.S. was the key world carpets producing country with an output of about 1.1B sq.m. in 2016, which accounted for 28% of total global output. The other major producers were China (12%), Turkey (12%), Egypt (7%), Canada (6%), Belgium (5%), India (5%) and the Netherlands (4%). Most of the other major producing countries showed decline of carpets output in physical terms. In the U.S. it decline by -2.4% from 2007-2016. The highest annual growth rates were observed in Turkey (+11.5%) and China (+10.5%).
About 38% of global carpet production was exported
In 2016, approx. 38% of global production was sent to exports and this share increased from 2007 (+7 percentage points). High trade intensity is determined mainly by the substantial distances between the main countries of carpets manufacturing and key consuming countries. Carpets will continue to be highly traded, fueled by increasing consumption, trade liberalization policies, intense global and regional integration.
Turkey and China emerged as the fastest growing exporters of carpets
In 2016, the volume of global exports totalled 1,479M sq.m., which equated to $12B, with a mixed trend pattern over the last few years. A deep plunge in 2009 was followed by a steady growth up to 2014, when it leveled off and remained static through 2016. In value terms, the trend pattern was similar to that of exports in physical terms, except for the last two years: it dropped by 8% in 2015 and remained unchanged in 2016. Given the growth in exports in physical terms, the reduction in the value of exports was due to a decline in export prices in the world’s leading producer countries. This, in turn, was caused by the devaluation of their national currencies against the U.S. dollar amid falling oil prices.
Turkey (343M sq.m.), China (224M sq.m.), Belgium (214M sq.m.), the Netherlands (145M sq.m.) and India (109M sq.m.) were the main global suppliers of carpets with a combined share of 70% of global exports. Turkey and China constituted the fastest growing exporters. From 2007 to 2016, average annual growth rates of carpets exports from these countries stood at +10.8% and +5.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, the other major exporting countries decreased their exports over the period under review.
The U.S. remains the largest market for imported carpets
The volume of global imports totalled 1,280M sq.m. in 2016, which was equal to $11B in value terms. Imports trend pattern generally mirrored that of exports: these trade flows globally complement each other.
In 2016, the U.S. (215M sq.m.), the U.K. (150M sq.m.), Germany (94M sq.m.), Canada (62M sq.m.) and Japan (52M sq.m.) constituted the leading destinations of carpets imports, together comprising 45% of global imports. Amongst the major importing countries, the U.S. (+3.3% per year) and Germany (+1.3% per year) gained the highest annual growth rates from 2007 to 2016. At the same time, the U.K. (-3.0%), Canada (-0.6%) and Japan (-1.6%) indicated an overall contraction of carpet imports over the same period. Consequently, the share of the U.S. in terms of the global imports increased significantly from 14% in 2007 to 17% in 2016, while the share of the UK (-5 percentage points) illustrated a noticeable contraction. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.