Following the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached record highs in the global market. This triggered a severe energy crisis in Pakistan, leading to acute power shortages across the country.
Frequent load shedding became common due to gas shortages and intense heatwaves. In this context, solar energy emerged as a new frontier for alternative power. With the falling global prices of solar panels and government incentives for rooftop solar, the use of this renewable energy expanded rapidly in Pakistan, significantly reducing dependence on the national grid.
Statistics show that from January 2022 to December 2025, Pakistan built a solar capacity equivalent to nearly one-fifth of its total power generation. While regional tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted oil and gas supplies, the expansion of solar power has largely shielded the South Asian nation from a deeper crisis. According to a report by The Guardian, Pakistan managed to avoid approximately $12 billion in fuel imports as of February, as the use of gas and LNG in power generation declined significantly.
Currently, LNG accounts for about 20 percent of the country’s power generation, primarily limited to nighttime. Experts suggest that the Pakistani government’s strategic decision to develop the solar sector during the post-Ukraine war energy crisis has proven to be a blessing for the country.
In contrast, despite decade-long promises to increase renewable energy capacity in Bangladesh, progress has remained slow. Currently, only 3.69 percent of the country’s total power generation capacity comes from renewable sources, with grid-based solar contributing a mere 2.69 percent. The country still remains heavily dependent on gas, coal, and fuel oil. As the ongoing conflict in the Middle East creates uncertainty in global energy supplies, Bangladesh’s energy security faces new risks.
Experts believe that had renewable energy capacity been increased in time, a large portion of the daytime power demand could have been met by solar energy, easing the pressure on gas and oil-based plants. However, a lack of integrated planning, policy delays, and insufficient government incentives have caused Bangladesh to miss its targets.
Shafiqul Alam, lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), told Bonik Barta, “Although a target was set to generate 10 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2021, it wasn’t achieved. While many countries increased investment in the renewable sector to mitigate risks in the international energy market following the Russia-Ukraine war, similar initiatives were not seen in Bangladesh. The war in the Middle East once again underscores the urgent necessity of investing in renewable energy.”
Shafiqul Alam further noted, “Since renewable energy tariffs are fixed, they remain shielded from the price volatility of fossil fuels in the international market. More than 500 MW of rooftop solar projects have already been implemented, particularly in the industrial sector. Currently, at least 200–300 MW are in the pipeline for implementation, with another 200–300 MW under process. Rooftop solar capacity could be rapidly expanded if investments are incentivised through duty exemptions.”
Bangladesh spends over $12 billion annually on fuel imports, including oil, LNG, coal, and other fuels, a significant portion of which is utilised for power generation. Stakeholders warned that the conflict in the Middle East could drive up fuel import costs by an additional $3 billion. Meeting this extra expense from local sources would intensify pressure on foreign exchange reserves. In response, the government is seeking loans from international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The government expects approximately $1.5 billion in assistance from the IMF and has requested $250 million from the ADB.
The country’s electricity demand, currently around 15,000 MW daily, remains heavily dependent on gas, fuel oil, coal-based power plants, and imports. Local renewable sources contribute just over 800 MW, with solar providing a maximum of roughly 700 MW during the day — representing slightly over 4.5 percent of the total demand.
Experts argue that increasing solar usage could establish significant daytime generation capacity, thereby reducing reliance on expensive LNG and other fossil fuels.
Regarding this, Change Initiative, a private research organisation focusing on renewable energy, stated that over 10,000 MW of electricity could be generated by utilising industrial rooftops and open water bodies. According to the organisation, such initiatives would play a crucial role in strengthening energy security by reducing import dependence.
Research indicates that Pakistan reduced its LNG imports by 15.4 percent year-on-year by increasing its solar capacity. Similarly, grid-based power demand in Pakistan dropped by 11 percent in 2025 compared to 2022.
The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is also working to increase renewable energy production. Recent reductions in solar tariffs have been viewed positively by stakeholders. While past projects had tariffs between BDT 13–14 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), solar projects approved by the interim government through open tenders have seen tariffs drop by BDT 6–7 compared to previous rates.
A senior BPDB official, requesting anonymity, told Bonik Barta, “BPDB has already approved several solar tariffs to boost investment and capacity. Projects totalling several thousand megawatts are currently in the works. BPDB is also encouraging private entrepreneurs to help achieve these targets.”
According to the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA), the country’s total renewable energy generation capacity currently stands at 1,698 MW. Of this, solar power accounts for 1,405 MW, with 1,028 MW connected directly to the national grid and the remaining 377 MW used off-grid. While the total grid-based power generation capacity is 28,919 MW, the share of renewable energy is only 3.69 percent. For solar energy alone, the rate is even lower at just 2.69 percent.
The ousted Awami League government failed to achieve the renewable energy targets it had set. Although the Power System Master Plan 2016 aimed for 10 percent of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2021, the goal remained unfulfilled. Following the change in power, the interim government cancelled Letters of Intent (LOIs) for 37 renewable energy projects approved under a special law. Among these, 31 were private sector projects involving investments of approximately $300 million, including land acquisition. Although the interim government subsequently floated several tenders for renewable energy, foreign companies showed no interest in participating.
Sector experts believe that policy complexities and a shortage of skilled manpower are major hurdles to the progress of renewable energy, particularly solar. Abul Kalam Azad, manager (Just Energy Transition) at ActionAid, told Bonik Barta, “The interim government set a target of producing 3,000 MW of solar power by 2025, but it could not be achieved. There are two primary issues: first, policy uncertainty, which discourages stakeholders from investing, and the lack of a robust government monitoring system. Second, the shortage of skilled and qualified manpower remains a significant challenge. While private organisations have taken some initiatives, they are very limited compared to the requirement.”
Abul Kalam Azad added that the government must take a more proactive role to ensure the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Specifically, withdrawing duties and VAT on the import of essential equipment, such as solar panels and inverters, could significantly boost investment.
He further noted, “It’s a misconception that the fossil fuel crisis will be resolved once the war ends. Instead, it will pave the way for a greater struggle for market dominance. The government must understand this wartime reality. If the government prioritises the renewable sector to overcome the energy crisis, it will provide the country with the kind of mileage that Pakistan has successfully achieved.”
