
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), in collaboration with UNCTAD and regional commissions, has released the “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025” report, providing a comprehensive analysis of global economic trends and projections.
Summary
- Global Economic Growth:
• Global growth is forecast at 2.8% for 2024 and 2025, with a slight increase to 2.9% in 2026.
• Advanced economies, such as the U.S. and the EU, will see moderate growth, while developing countries, led by South Asia and East Asia, are expected to perform better.
• South Asia, driven by India’s strong growth (6.8% in 2024), remains a key driver of global economic expansion. However, Bangladesh’s growth is projected to slow from 5.3% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025. - Inflation Trends:
• Inflation rates are expected to decline globally but will remain elevated in some regions.
• Developing countries will face higher inflation levels (6% in 2024, 5.1% in 2025), with South Asia and Bangladesh experiencing particularly high rates. Bangladesh’s inflation is forecast to drop from 10.2% in 2024 to 8.5% in 2025.
• Risks of inflationary pressures persist due to supply-side shocks, trade restrictions, and climate-related disruptions. - Global Trade:
• Merchandise imports are projected to grow by 6.6% in 2024, slowing to 3.6% in 2025, with volume-based growth at a modest 3.2% in 2024.
• Trade disruptions, including attacks in the Red Sea and protectionist policies, have significantly impacted global supply chains, increased costs and posing risks to future trade growth. - Key Risks:
• Geopolitical conflicts, such as ongoing tensions and trade restrictions, threaten economic stability.
• Climate-related events, including droughts and floods, could exacerbate food and energy inflation while disrupting global supply chains.
Analysis
The report highlights a cautious global economic outlook, with uneven growth trajectories between advanced and developing economies. Developing regions, particularly South Asia, continue to serve as engines of growth, but high inflation and structural vulnerabilities pose challenges. Bangladesh’s slowing growth and persistent inflation underline the need for targeted economic policies to stabilize prices and boost productivity.
Inflationary risks from supply chain disruptions, trade restrictions, and climate change underscore the fragility of global economic recovery. Policymakers must prioritize resilience through diversified trade strategies, investment in sustainable energy, and climate adaptation measures.